What does product–market fit look like when the market doesn’t exist yet? In this article, I explore how PMF works in frontier spaces like GenAI, emerging tech, and nascent categories. Drawing from real-world experience, I unpack how to identify early signals of traction, listen to users without overfitting, and balance fast iteration with trust. When you’re this early, PMF isn’t a moment — it’s a series of bets that shape the market itself.
Everyone talks about product–market fit like it’s a fixed point on the roadmap. Find the market, build the product, iterate until the magic happens.
But what if there is no market yet?
If you’re building at the bleeding edge - whether it’s GenAI tooling, autonomous agents, quantum security, software for systems that didn’t exist six months ago or perhaps even markets that are lacking extensive digitalisation - you’re not iterating toward a known need. You’re inventing the problem space as much as the solution.
In these moments, product–market fit isn’t something you find.
It’s something you forge.
In mature markets, PMF is measured with crisp retention curves, NPS scores, MRR growth, and tidy funnel metrics. But in emerging categories, those signals either don’t exist or are wildly misleading.
You might have:
In this environment, the definition of “market” is unstable. Users don’t always know what they need because they’ve never had the tools to imagine it. You’re not just solving for a job-to-be-done - you’re helping define what the job is.
So what should you look for when you’re this early? A few signs have proven valuable in my own experience launching products in nascent spaces:
These are signs of resonance, not just retention. And in early markets, resonance is the most reliable compass you’ve got.
When you’re early, every user feels precious. Their feedback feels like gold. But here’s the paradox: early adopters aren’t the same as mainstream users. They’re more forgiving, more technical, more willing to play with incomplete tools.
Listen closely. But filter ruthlessly.
A few things I’ve learned the hard way:
You’re not just iterating - you’re curating. And curation is about choosing what not to pursue.
In frontier spaces, you’re walking a tightrope between speed and credibility. You need to move fast - but you also need to build enough trust that users, partners, and buyers take you seriously.
Especially in AI and enterprise-adjacent markets, there’s pressure to feel “production-ready” even when you’re still in R&D. That’s where positioning matters:
You’re not just shipping features - you’re signalling maturity.
There’s a myth that product–market fit is a lightning bolt. One day it just clicks, the metrics spike, and you know you’ve made it.
But in frontier markets, PMF is rarely a moment. It’s a series of hard, ambiguous decisions made before anyone else sees the path. It’s listening without overreacting, building with conviction, and holding a vision loosely enough to adapt — but tightly enough to finish the climb.
It’s a bet. And if you’re right, you don’t just ride the market — you shape it.
If you’re building something the world hasn’t caught up to yet, remember: you’re not behind. You’re just early. And the work of early builders is to see the invisible — and bring it into focus for everyone else.
PMF isn’t a product or a market.
It’s the moment they start to make sense together - because you made it make sense.
If you’re building something ambitious, I’d love to be part of it. Reach out to chat about your next product or growth challenge.
